Project Liberty Substack

In 1864, as train tracks started spreading across Europe, King William I of Prussia predicted: “No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free.”​

In 1977, Ken Olsen, the president of Digital Equipment Corporation, a computer company, confidently said, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”​

In 1998, Paul Krugman, the MIT economist and New York Times columnist, boldly declared: “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”

Predictions about the future offer a lighthearted chastening for those of us attempting to imagine and build the next generation of technology. It is easy to misjudge the trajectory of new innovations.

As the first stages of an AI-driven revolution begin reverberating across society, it is time to start asking: 1) what predictions are we making today that won’t age well? And 2) how are we failing to imagine the technology’s potential impact?